Hillary vs. Trump: Who's better for your Wallet

Hillary vs. Trump: Who's better for your Wallet

      With both candidates claiming they are the best for the future of the United States, you might be wondering, “ which one is going to be the best for my finances?” The answer might seem clear at first as one candidate, Donald Trump, is boasting quite the tax cut for all income levels. However, the more you dig into each candidate's plans, the more difficult it becomes to determine who will truly be better for your wallet in the long term.

    Since we already mentioned him, let's start with Mr. Trump's plans. The main goal of his trade policies are to keep and create jobs in the U.S. This is no small task since our citizens demand their goods at great values and we are a member of several free trade agreements. To do this he wants to hold foreign governments accountable for unfair trade policies like artificially deflating prices and manipulating their currency. While his plans aren't extremely detailed, he centers their completion around imposing tariffs and using international trade law to get countries to compete fairly in global markets. This would theoretically then stimulate exports from the U.S., and create more jobs here for our citizens.    

    This idea may actually work regardless of whether foreign governments decide to compete fairly or not. If they decide to stop artificially decreasing the prices of their goods, then it would be more economically viable to produce goods in the U.S. If the countries do not stop trading unfairly, then tariffs will drastically increase the prices of the goods to make it viable for companies to produce those goods here in the U.S. instead.

    However, his plan has several undesirable consequences. First, it will increase the price of goods for consumers here in the U.S. If wages don’t increase as well, which could occur due to stagnation in wage growth, then consumers will consume less, producers will produce less and jobs will be cut. If tariffs are enacted, then it is likely that the other countries would impose tariffs on our exports as well, and both economies would hurt.

    Donald Trump's tax plans are probably the highlight of his policies and embody a pretty standard republican view, lowering taxes and simplifying the U.S. tax code. U.S. income tax currently has 7 brackets: 10, 15, 25, 28, 33, 35, 39.6%. Qualifying for each bracket depends on both income and filing status. Trump's plan wants to reduce it to 3 brackets which would be 10, 20, and 25%, however he is currently rethinking his tax brackets. In addition, anyone filing singly with income less than or equal to $25k, or jointly less than or equal to $50k would pay no taxes (also being rethought). Additionally, he wants to reduce the corporate tax rate to a flat 15% from it's current 39.1%.

    The main benefit of these cuts is that it puts a significant amount of money back in the pockets of consumers and corporations to hopefully spend on products, increase production, or research new technologies. In turn, the boost in consuming and spending would lead to more employment and

thus more taxpayers. Some estimates peg economic growth at up to 11% in GDP and an addition of up to 5 million jobs. With these tax cuts must come a serious debate of what government spending should also be cut. Mr. Trump has already voiced that he does not want to cut any spending from Social Security or Medicaid, and wants to have an even greater military than what we already have. Without cutting spending from any of these three areas, it would be impossible for him to also claim to be able to reduce our nation's debt. When adjusting for economic growth, it would be a loss of about $1 Trillion a year from tax revenues! If this were to continue into the future, it would create a scenario where our country's debt would reach catastrophic levels.

    Again, you might be wondering, "but how will this affect my wallet?" The biggest positive (and only guaranteed) outcome with this plan is that you will have an increase in after-tax income, meaning what actually gets deposited into your bank account and can be spent by you. This is a great thing for you but only a great thing for the country's economy if you decide to spend it--saving doesn't really do much for economic growth. Next, you might find it easier to secure employment because of an increase in domestic production of goods created out of the hypothetically fair global market. There is one major problem with the latter, and it’s that the World Trade Organization, the international body that helps make global trade fair,has been something Mr. Trump has been very critical of.) I guess he has never learned that you can't have your cake and eat it too.

    While Mr. Trump's plans seem to be very centered around what might be best for our country, they could have secondary and tertiary effects that have lasting negative impacts on our country and it's economy. There is a serious dichotomy between what he is saying he will do and what he can actually do if he were elected to be the next president of The United States.

    At first glance, Hillary Clinton has a far wider array of ideas for the future of the United States to include actual names of existing or proposed policies with extensive explanations. But in many cases, just because they are detailed doesn't mean that those plans are going to work.

    Having said that, let's air out some of her basic ideas regarding Taxes, trade, and job creation. When it comes to trade, she generally wants the same things as Mr. Trump-- fair trade deals that provide economic opportunity to all, and better enforcing of current and future deals in order to prevent unfair practices. Currently Hillary is against signing the Trans Pacific Partnership, or TPP,

Yes I made this Meme

and has expressed interest in renegotiating NAFTA. If President Obama gets the TPP signed before he leaves office then his successor will have a difficult time renegotiating NAFTA because of stipulations regarding preexisting deals. Hillary also wants to impose stricter rules on countries who trade their goods illegally, provide unfair subsidies to their manufacturers, or those who manipulate currency to make their goods cheaper. To be fair, she doesn't just want to impose a bunch of rules on foreign countries and hope everything sorts itself out. She is proposing that we hold U.S. companies accountable for shipping jobs overseas and use tax inversion to bypass our tax system. She proposes any U.S. company shipping jobs overseas would have to pay back any tax incentives taken from the Federal government in addition to adding exit taxes to companies that shift their profits overseas to avoid taxes.

    Her reasoning behind those decisions is essentially the same as Mr. Trump's-- to promote keeping and creating jobs in the United States. All of the outcomes of her ideas are essentially the same as well. If tariffs are enacted, then foreign governments may do the same to us again and possibly create a trade war. However, Hillary has many other plans that encourage U.S. companies to keep jobs in the United States. Most of her proposals offer some type of tax incentive for investing in U.S. manufacturing, and further incentives for creating jobs in specific hard-hit areas that need to be revitalized. She also wants it to be easier for companies to bring jobs back to the United States by streamlining the process between governments.

    Similarly, her tax plans are focused on top wage earners in the U.S., but conversely she plans on increasing taxes for top earners. For example, she plans on imposing a 4% tax on anyone that makes more than $5 million a year, a mandatory effective tax rate of 30% on anyone making more

I made this one too

than $1 million (Buffet Rule), she wants to close loopholes that are available to those that can afford them, and increase capital gains taxes. She also plans to make it easier, quicker and less expensive to start a business and to file taxes for those small businesses.

    The reason for her tax changes is to pay for the plans she wants to implement which will hopefully increase economic opportunity for lower and middle-class Americans. These plans provide federal funding to state and local programs that help increase youth employment, supply re-entry programs for the incarcerated, aid entrepreneurship and infrastructure programs for underserved areas, as well as create affordable housing. These plans, in addition to  everything else she has proposed, would cost about $1.8 trillion over a period of 10 years. She has current planned offsets of $1.6 trillion which are largely funded by the tax increases on the wealthy which we have already discussed. The difference would hopefully be bridged by certain corporate taxes creating a proposed $275 billion in revenue.

    So how will Hillary's plans affect your wallet? As far as her trade policies, they would be quite similar to Mr. Trump's. Just like Trump's plans, hers is proposed to create an increase in jobs in the United States. Therefore, if you are looking for employment, this could benefit you! Unfortunately, a fairer trading arena will likely increase the cost of the products we consume making it more expensive for us to live. Hillary and Trump’s tax plans are also similar in the sense that it targets the highest wage earners. Bottom line: the people reading this (mainly middle class Americans) will not be affected by her tax plan. It is targeted at the highest wage earners, increasing their taxes in order to pay for the plans that will benefit those that earn the least.

    Who is really better for your wallet? It’s hard to say at this point because both candidates have some good and some bad policies that end up offsetting each other. In my opinion, if Mr. Trump wasn’t so against free trade he might actually be the best economic choice. His tax cuts will put more after tax income into everyone’s pockets. Both have a very serious shortcoming though, they offer no serious plan to reduce the country's looming debt crisis. This, by far, is one of the more serious but never talked about issues we should be addressing that could seriously hinder our future financial well being. If you want real financial security for the future vote for someone that addresses this issue.

 

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