Sunday, June 11, 2017

Inflation: The Cookie Monster of Savings Accounts

              If you have ever had a conversation about money with anyone they have probably told you that saving your money is a good idea. While I cannot argue against that point I can say that just saving your money is the worst of the good ideas out there.
              Your savings should be anywhere from 3 to 6 months of your living expenses in liquid assets, anything that is cash or can be sold easily for cash with little or no effect on its value. Yes, that does sound like a lot because it is and it is for a good reason. Here is a short list of monthly expenses (depending on lifestyle) $1000 for rent, $300 for food, $250 for health insurance, $150 for gas, $120 for electric, $80 for cellphone, $60 for car insurance, $50 for internet, and $20 for property insurance. This is a rough estimate and it is just considering you are single, healthy, have zero debt, and have no dependents. The grand total is $2,030 a month, 3-6 months of that could be anywhere from $6,090 to $12,180. This may seem like a lot of money sitting around not doing anything because it is.
              Having the emergency fund is important to help you navigate those obstacles in life like losing a job, major car repairs, or a serious injury without having to dip into things like your retirement accounts. However, having that money sitting in a savings account is almost the worst thing you can do with it besides spending it on non-emergencies. Savings accounts accrue almost insulting amounts of interest, sometimes as low as .01%.
              Having large amounts of cash in a savings account is detrimental and in the long term will cause you to lose money. There is this nasty thing called inflation, it has been around forever terrorizing peoples savings accounts. Inflation causes your money to lose value, essentially it won’t be able to buy as much in the future as it can now. Currently the average rate of inflation from 1913 to 2013 is 3.22%. To give you an idea of what this does to your money; If you currently had 3 months of expenses saved, $6,090, you would have to have $8,399 dollars to purchase the same amount of goods 10 years from now. While your money won’t be disappearing, you will find out later that it won’t be able to buy as much.
              This can be very discouraging but I am happy to tell you there are plenty of things you can do to negate the effects of inflation. The basic idea is to buy an asset that can appreciate but can also be sold quickly enough to provide cash to cover emergency expenses. These assets are liquid assets or something that can flow in and out of the state of cash without losing too much of its value. There are plenty of these types of assets available, however there are certain types that are better than others for mimicking a savings account. The qualities you want to look for in assets; 1. They can be sold relatively quickly without major depreciation in value or penalties; 2. Has a history and a predicted future of low volatility; 3. Has a yield that is close to or above the rate of inflation.
              The first is the most important because the whole purpose of having savings is so that you can cover unforeseen expenses. If the assets you are invested in can’t be sold quickly enough or without penalty then they really aren’t serving their purpose and should be used for something else. This does not mean you should have all cash because if you did and you never run into any large emergencies you miss out on the potential profits that could have come out of that money. It also does not mean you should have zero cash, there are many instances when cash is necessary instantaneously such as over drafting your checking account or something as crazy as a once in a lifetime investment opportunity. Bottom line a good amount of cash would be that of an expensive yet realistic car repair or at least the largest amount that could potentially be over drafted on your checking account.
              Low volatility while being second inline is a very close second, any asset you do purchase will have some sort of risk involved in it. One dollar will always be one dollar but a piece of gold bought for one dollar will not always be worth one dollar. Having said that the purchasing power of one dollar will rarely if ever increase but the amount that asset, like gold, could be sold for an increase in value at some point. The big downside is that when you do purchase an asset it can at some point lose all or most of its value, the chance of this happening is its volatility. One example would be if you owned Enron stock at its height of about $90, close to a year later it would be worth $.50. Therefore, you want to buy an asset that has a history of low volatility and a predicted future of the same. While this is an extreme case it is a good example of why the asset you buy should not be stock in publicly traded company. You should buy an asset that has very little chance of entirely losing its face value.
              The yield, or growth of the asset is the last thing you need to look for. It should be close to or above the average rate of inflation. While this is the main point of buying a financial product in this specific case, it cannot be the main determinant when selecting that product, do not get greedy. The bigger the possible gains the asset proposes it probably has equally as bad possible losses. Now that we know all these things the idea is to get as close to the risk reward breaking point as possible while maintaining that liquidity that is so important.
              Now we get to the proverbial question “What do I need to buy?” While I have suggestions, I like to leave this up to you because everyone’s situation is different. I will give you the pros and cons of the three main options and tell you which one that I would pick. After all the best way to get to financial independence is by making your own decisions.
              The easiest and safest thing you could do is invest in a money market account. These accounts are like savings accounts but generally have a slightly higher interest rate. They have the safety of an account that is FDIC insured and are in-volatile, but this comes with a price, you will still be losing in the long run to inflation. Their interest rates while higher than savings accounts are generally never above 1%. If you decide to use a money market fund I would suggest that you do not put all your cash into it unless you must do everything possible to maintain its current value while still earning a bit of interest.
              The harder of the riskier options would be investing in fixed income products like CD's, Bonds, Annuities, and Treasury Notes. These investment products do have a much higher yield than money market funds but in some cases, are more un-liquid or not able to be used in an emergency. They are also slightly riskier especially if they aren’t issued by the U.S. Government. The benefit is that it requires a lot of research to find the right asset to buy. This gives you the chance to learn about major financial players in our economy which will hopefully give you knowledge that can lead you to making other informed financial decisions. In the financial world knowledge is money.
              This brings us to our last option, the easier of the riskier options, and the one that I think is all around the best, Bond Funds. These are essentially just like mutual funds made up of stocks but are made up of bonds that are issued by companies or government agencies. The financial wizards that manage these funds do all the heavy research for you and you get to reap all the benefits. The benefits of bond funds are the perfect blend of yield and risk level because they are usually sell-able without penalty and the proceeds can be used relatively quickly while still having the low volatility of fixed income assets. The returns on these funds are not anything to get excited about but it is easy to find one that meets or exceeds the inflation rate. The only concerns with them is that they do tend to fluctuate in value especially with the movement of interest rates in our economy and they have expense ratios. These are amounts of money that you must pay to those that manage the fund you decided to invest in, however it is also easy to find a bond fund that has substantially less than a 1% expense ratio.

              If it were up to me I would buy a bond fund that is comprised of government backed securities which would give me very predictable interest rates and relatively low risk. But I won’t rob you of making your own decision. One of the best feelings is taking your future into your own hands and that goes for your financial future as well. Now that you have some of the facts you can make the right decision for yourself, just try not to stress about it too much, the worst decision you could make is to do nothing and let inflation eat away at your savings.


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