Diseny, What do They Do? A Compelling Reason to Invest

Disney, What do They Do? A Compelling Reason to Invest

     The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is an international family oriented multi-media company. The company operates in 5 different segments: Media & Networks, Parks & Resorts, Studio Entertainment, Disney Consumer Products, and Disney Interactive. October 16th, 1923 is considered to be the formation of the Walt Disney Company when the company signed a contract to produce their first animated cartoons. The company has grown into something Walt Disney probably had never imagined. It is now valued at $168 billion and has a share price that currently fluctuates around $100. 

     Their media department consists of Disney Channels, ABC/ABC Family Channels, ESPN, all of their associated studios and several Television Stations. These assets have produced the #1 morning show "Good Morning America", Emmy Award winner "Modern Family", "Dancing with The Stars", Emmy Award Winner "Lost", "General Hospital", "20/20", "Scandal", and "Sports Center". I would be willing to bet that you, your dad, or your mom has religiously watched one of the shows I mentioned (my mom LOVES GH, shout out to Judy!). The main earner, ESPN, creates revenue in excess of $10 billion as of 2014, which is half the GDP of Honduras. Media Networks ended 2014 with $21,152 billion in revenues (up 4% from 2013).
     The Parks & Resorts department consists of two U.S. amusement parks Disneyland & Walt Disney World (about the size of San Francisco), 4 international parks Shanghai, Tokyo, Paris, and Hong Kong, a Cruise Line, Vacation Club, and many Resorts. Their flagships Disneyland & Walt Disney World made the majority of this segments revenue at $12,329 billion (81.6%). Their

international sub segment is almost complete with it's largest project since Paris, Disney Shanghai. It is a joint venture with the Shanghai Shendi Group (majority owner at 57%) and will hopefully begin providing a revenue boost to this segment when it opens in the Spring of 2016. While both Domestic and International sub segments grew in 2014, Paris dragged down growth with a decrease of hotel bookings and park attendance. As the second highest revenue stream for The Walt Disney Company, Parks & Resorts grew their revenue by 7% and operating income 20% from 2013-14.
     Possibly the most famous segment is the Studio Entertainment portion headlined by Pixar (has won 30 Academy Awards), Marvel, Touchstone, and Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures. They have produced movies such as Academy Award winning Frozen, Oscar Winning Big Hero 6, Pirates of the Caribbean, Toy Story, Iron Man, Captain America, Avengers, Pretty Woman, Good Morning Vietnam, Dead Poets Society, Armageddon, and Pearl Harbor. The list from just Touchstone Pictures is over 200 films. Possibly the highest performing sector, revenues grew by 22%. Net income grew by 134% attributable to keeping operating costs down and large increases in home entertainment and theatrical distribution.  With the acquisition of Lucasfilm and Marvel having a vault of over 7,000 comic characters I can't see this segment flat lining as long as they keep their creativity.

     The Disney Consumer Products segment consists of Licensing, Publishing, and Stores (online/physical over 200). This segment takes all the popular characters and monetizes them through selling books, magazines, toys, and other consumer products or the rights to create those goods. While not explicitly stated I believe this segment will rise and fall with the popularity of their Studio releases and as stated in the 10-k 2014's segment revenues were helped by the popularity of "Frozen" one of their hit studio releases. If their creativity continues as it has in the past this segment will keep up it's double digit growth, 12% revenue and 22% operating growth from 2013-14'.
     The last segment, Interactive, is relatively new as it was founded in 2008. It encompasses their famous video game Infinity, mobile game Where's My Water?, virtual online world Club Penguin,

and babble, a parenting blog site. Largely due to success with their Infinity game this segment turned a profit in 2014 making a meager $116 million. Inserting new characters into the Infinity game will be key in keeping that revenue source going in the future, and they have already done so with Star Wars characters.
     Disney's future will be determined by it's ability to monetize the outcomes of it's creativity. They have shown in the past they are extremely capable of this by creating characters that captivate and entertain their audience but can also be turned into a source of revenue for all business segments within Disney. Detriments to it's future might be the beginning shift away from cable and satellite TV packages that include their most profitable product, ESPN. But the acquisition of Marvel Comics and Lucasfilm will more than make up for any revenue decreases in that segment. There is no doubt why Disney is in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and their should be no reason why it isn't in your portfolio. A company that was founded on creativity and breeds it in all aspects of it's business I believe will have no problem continuing this. But don't take my word for it...do your own research.
     

The Great White Buffalo

The Great White Buffalo

     As elusive as they may seem they do exist, they really do. In true popular culture definition A Great White Buffalo is "the" perfect mate, that is usually unattainable. On Wall Street I would be willing to bet this would be equated to Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) a company that has risen it's share price by over 10,000%! But what if I told you that The Great White Buffalo could be yours? Would you believe me? Well you should because it's true. They are called "Blue Chip" stocks, they are not as unattainable as they may seem and you probably already know most of them.
     The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), or The Dow for short tracks some of the best Blue Chip stocks. It is a composite of the top 30 public companies: American Express (AXP), Apple (AAPL), The Home Depot (HD), McDonald's (MCD), Walmart (WMT), and Disney (DIS) to name a few (you can find the full list here). Since 12/SEP/15 when The Dow was at 809.23 it has grown 1,889 % to 16102.38 almost 40 years later.

DJIA 75' to 2015' Taken from Google Finance

The Dow is where these Buffalo's live and should be hunted. While firing money at The Dow Rambo style would probably yield acceptable results it isn't very efficient. So let's practice some trigger control and take the best shots possible like Chris Kyle.
     Hunting these companies is pretty simple, most of the work is already done by the formation of the list. You will simply have to buy them at the best price which can be as complicated or simplistic as you make it. You could simply attempt to buy it at the lowest Price to Earnings ratio as possible or you can add in as many valuation criteria as you want. And to get even more complicated you could do your own industry research, sift through all the companies annual reports, and attempt to understand it's business model more than it's CEO does.

Get it?!? No tear formula!!!

     To get the idea look at Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), John and Johnson is a holding company, they own many different companies but all deal in Health Products. Their famous brands are Neutrogena, Listerine, Band-Aid, Visine, Acuvue, to name a few, and if you have ever had any kind of surgery
you have probably been operated on with Johnson and Johnson products. The industry they operate in is something that isn't affected by slowing consumer purchasing. In a bad economy people are still going to buy shampoo, medicine, and have surgeries. They boast an impeccable dividend record, having never decreased or stopped it since it's inception in 1987 with a current yield of 3.28%. They are fairly valued with a price to earnings ratio of 16 and boast the highest profit margin of any health product conglomerate I could find (25.39% for Q2 15'). Bottom line is it backs up it's position in the DJIA with great stats.
     Your search for The Great White Buffalo is much closer to an end than you think.  Sometimes the best companies to invest in are right in front of your eyes and with a company like Johnson and Johnson in your portfolio you are probably on your way to a no tear formula for investing. But don't take my word for it, do your own research.

Update: Has Fast Casual Been Perfected

Pie Five: Fast Casual Piefection

     While doing research on Pie Five I stumbled upon a few of their competitors, the main one being Blaze Pizza. I immediately started looking for excuses to visit any of their locations so that I could draw comparisons between the two. I just so happened to be traveling through Columbus, Ohio which which conveniently had a Blaze Pizza that was not too far out of the way. But before we start comparing the two lets talk about the ingredients that make a good fast casual restaurant so that you can see where Blaze is failing and Pie Five is succeeding. 

     Number One is good location, in short the store should be located in a high traffic area that contains your targeted demographic (the people you are trying to sell your product to). Number Two is the stores layout/format, it must be conducive to efficiently moving as many customers through the point of sale while maintaining positive customer experience. In a close Third is fantastic product w/ quality ingredients, it helps create the buzz to come visit and the memorable experience to come back again and again. In Fourth we have friendly and knowledgeable employees. This contributes to the overall experience and if passed over can contribute to losing your customers to the eerily similar chain across the street. And last but certainly not least, a fair price for the quality of food you are selling. Your restaurant could have the best food in the world but if it is priced too high you might lose tons of customers.
     While I can not speak about all locations I have been to one Pie Five and one Blaze Pizza. Pie Five was in an okay location just off a main strip and a major highway exit. Blaze Pizza was right across the street from one of the largest college campuses in the world. Picking from the two locations I would definitely chose Blaze, Blaze- 1 Pie Five- 0.
     The format of the stores were similar in the sense that they had quick lines that both ended by the fountain drinks, cool outlets to charge via USB, and easily accessible cafe style seating. But Blaze lost, while this wasn't the case (unfortunately for them), if very busy their line would have directly interfered with people trying to get drinks from the soda fountain. It would also make for awkward who is going which way interactions with other customers while trying to move towards the line. I also thought the giant gas fired pizza oven was a bit much. It required a single person to be able to track multiple pizzas at the same time throughout the entire day, if he isn't paying attention a pizza could be over or under cooked ruining the customer experience. Pie Five's traditional conveyor pizza oven ensures uniform cooking for all pizzas.  Along with not having a state of the art bathroom like Pie Five they were missing witty decorations to add that smile to their experience that might get them back. Blaze- 1 Pie Five- 1.
     I attempted to get the same pizza at both locations and while the Blaze pizza was larger I thought the Pie Five pizza was slightly better in taste and quality. Blaze only had 1 style of crust besides their gluten free option, Pie Five has 4. The toppings including sauces were similar but at first glance the ingredients at Pie Five had a slightly more premium look. And my favorite part, Pie Five used way more cheese. Oh, and they offer to sprinkle your pizza with "magic dust" right before you check out. Win for Pie Five, Blaze- 1 Pie Five- 2.
     While the customer service was not horrible it was not the gold standard of "Starbucks" customer service. Comparatively the wait to start eating my pizza was much longer than Pie Five, which boasts a pizza in five minutes or less. The assembly process of my pizza at Pie Five even seemed to be more carefully constructed. And while waiting at the cashier for my finished product I had a pleasant conversation with the "magic dust" lady and cashier. Blaze- 1 Pie Five- 3.
     And what causes the most confusion for me for these "Chipotle" style fast casual restaurants is the price, and how they turn a profit off of these premium products. Bottom line Pie Five is roughly 46 cents cheaper, Blaze $7.45 and Pie Five $6.99. The premium product at an affordable price is evident at both but Pie Five wins. Blaze- 1 and Pie Five- 4.
     With many premium locations already taken up by the likes of Panera, Chipotle, and Starbucks it will be difficult for either to find footholds, but not impossible. If Pie Five keeps the wins and ups their game in choosing locations they will easily edge out competitors. 

Has Fast Casual Been Perfected?

Pie Five: Fast Casual Piefection

     "You have got to try Pie Five" said Kelina, "What is that?" I said with a grumpy attitude after a long day of work. With an enthusiastic attitude she said "It's this new pizza place over by Panera that you can get a customized personal pizza in five minutes!", I fired back with "you would love that place". Cue a death stare from Kelina. The next day she dragged me to Pie Five to try out this new "phenomenon", I was admittedly quite skeptic. I had no idea what I was getting myself into...

Two Custom Creations

     Yes that is some pizza from Pie Five, and yes it was done in 5 minutes, it is quite shocking how fast you can get pizza here, good pizza at that! But before we go any further you can get that pizza for $6.99, yes, for under $8 tax included you can get gourmet pizza. But wait...with literally any number of toppings you want (we'll get into how they make money later). To back track a bit here is what they offer: 4 types of crust including gluten free for an extra charge, 4 cheeses, 7 sauces, 8 meats including meat balls and giant pepperoni slices, and 16 different types of veggies roma tomatoes, 3 different olives, red & green peppers, mushrooms, red onions, marinated artichoke hearts, and sun dried tomatoes to name a few. Besides the 10 different types of house pizzas you can order a personal pizza about a million different ways, which if you got different ingredients every day would last you about 2700 years without repeating a choice...talk about variety! Long story short their pizza is amazing.
     Got it, the product is amazing, what about the rest of the place? Well, I am so glad you asked. If you could perfect a store format for fast casual I think Pie Five has found it. An easy line to navigate with menus you can take with you down the line to order ingredients. A few feet away after a quick check out is a "freestyle" coke machine with over 100 choices. Next you have enough comfortable

seating to have a chat over your pizza, some even have outdoor seating to enjoy your pie under the sky. But don't stress there are outlets near most of the seating so you can charge your phone while you eat. But What if you forgot your wall charger? Well they have USB outlets too, yeah USB outlets. Did you try too many coke flavors or get greasy hands from the pizza? Oh no worries, there is a state of the art bathroom. In reality the toilet is just a toilet, but the sink, my god! Auto water, auto soap, and auto super duper jet dryer that blows the excess water off your hands and down into the sink. The restaurant is an attempt to target a younger crowd; attempts at consciously sourcing food, witty decorations recyclable pizza boxes, no paper towels in the bathroom, USB outlets, freestyle coke

machines, oh, well, and delicious pizza. To top it all off they have a rewards program that gives you a free pizza every 20 points with 10 points to start and 2 points per every regular priced pizza or salad that you buy.
     Immediately upon ending my meal with Kelina I enthusiastically said "Damn that was good" followed up by a calm and serious "I need to find out if they are public". Long story short Pie Five is not a public company, they are however wholly owned by RAVE Restaurant Group that also operates the Pizza Inn brand which is a chain that franchises over 300 stores worldwide. Rave also franchises 55 Pie Fives in the U.S. in 15 states and Washington D.C. the first one opening in 2011 in Fort Worth, Texas. Now would it be a good investment? No, at least not right now. First they are extremely small, with a market cap of about $120 million they are a micro cap. They also don't seem to be growing that much since the inception of Pie Five. Revenue is down $1 million and Net Income is down $2.93 million (215%) since the Pie Five debut. Their assets, specifically property/plant/equipment, are growing but with a franchise business I can't give you an  honest assessment of why that is. Lastly I have serious reservations about how their franchisees' make money, with premium ingredients and only a price of $6.99 their business model can't be anything other than getting as many people through the line as possible. After all their main selling point is a good pizza in less than five minutes. While RAVE has been public since 1994 their flagship product "Pie Five" is quite young and small as they only have 55 stores since 2011. I would seriously keep an eye on this company and their Pie Five product. This restaurant has the potential to have Chipotle like success. Oh yeah and they have dessert pizzas! But don't take my word for it, do your own research and get a pizza!

Going Bankrupt: Not Just a Saying

Going Bankrupt: Not Just a Saying

   
     Bottom line up front, Bankruptcy is bad m'kay!? Seriously, this is the last thing you want to do if you are having financial troubles. You are much better off trying to use a commercial debt consolidation agency or trying to argue better loan terms with your creditors. Bankruptcy will ultimately destroy your credit and make it extremely hard to secure any future loans. But here are the basics of it...

     What happens when you have no money, not enough or zero income, and your debts and bills still need to be paid? You go bankrupt and no, that is not just an idiom. It is actually a legal matter that you file with the federal court system under the federal bankruptcy code, and for individuals specifically chapter 7 or chapter 13.
     Chapter 7 filing is the greater of the two evils that individuals can file, to be eligible for Chapter 7 you must be in this case an individual,  partnership, corporation or other business entity. Your income must not be equal to or over the median income for your state, if it is then you are subject to a test to determine if your filing is abusing the use of bankruptcy. If the test is not passed your bankruptcy will either be converted to Chapter 13 or be dismissed.
     What happens under chapter 7 bankruptcy? It includes the liquidation of all eligible assets in an effort to pay off a debtors creditors, note that there are assets that are exempt from liquidation. The exemptions include things that will help you get back on your feet such as dwellings, transportation, household goods, clothing, and retirement accounts. These exemptions usually have a cap on value for instance in Ohio they include:

• Homestead: $132,900
• Vehicle: $3,675 in one vehicle
• Household goods: $12,250 with up to $575 in one item
• IRAs (including ROTH): $1,171,150

While this may sound like a good option you are still losing assets and may potentially lose the assets that you think might be exempt because they are over the value limit for that specific exemption. 

     If you still choose to file for chapter 7 you must give a petition to the bankruptcy court that includes multiple forms that require you to know: your creditors and the amount you owe them, income (source, amount, frequency), your property, your monthly expenses, and several other financial schedules (detailed lists in well organized manner), and a tax return. It also costs you money to file for chapter 7, $245 to file the case, $75 admin fee, and a $15 trustee fee (the person that liquidates your assets). There are also a wide range of nuances in the chapter 7 filing that could eventually still allow for loss of exempt property as well.
     The lesser of the two evils is chapter 13 bankruptcy. It essentially makes a plan to pay off your creditors in three to five years, three if you make less than median monthly income of your state (or have cause for longer) and five if you make over the median monthly income of your state. Your liabilities must not exceed $383,175 in unsecured debt (debt not backed up by collateral) and $1,149,525 in secured debt. You also must have been to credit counseling in the last 180 days (this applies to chapter 7 as well). Just like Chapter 7 you must submit a petition with all the same schedules, this is important in Chapter 13 because this information is used to notify your creditors to stop or not start their collection actions during the period of bankruptcy. There are also fees, $235 to file and $75 admin fee.
     If approved the debtor must submit a payment plan to the courts with the petition or within 14 days of filing. The debtor then has 30 days to make his first payment even if the payment plan hasn't been approved of yet. The payments will be submitted by the debtor to the trustee for distribution to the creditors which usually aren't paid in full unless they are a priority creditor such as a tax collection agency.
     Chapter 13 allows the debtor to stop all collections against their assets or property by creditors. This allows the debtor to keep much needed property such as housing and transportation, however this doesn't mean the debtor can pay the smallest amount possible. Priority debts will more than likely be paid in full unless the creditor agrees otherwise. Secured debts will have the outstanding payments paid off in full during the bankruptcy period and continue to pay throughout the life of the debt (typical of home mortgages). However smaller secured debts may be reduced to the liquidation value of the collateral borrowed against. If your payment plan is violated the court may convert your case to a chapter 7 and your assets would be liquidated or it may be dropped altogether and you would no longer have collection protection.

     Now that we know bankruptcy is bad hopefully you will be more careful about going into debt in the first place. The easiest way to go into debt is to not take out any loans or arguing for better terms with whoever is trying to loan you money. What is the worst that could happen? They say no and you move on to the next bank that may or may not agree to your terms. After all they should fight to get your business since you are paying them more money than you took from them in the first place. But don't take my word for it...do your own research. 

Should I buy a house?

 

Housing:

Why buying is not a good long term investment 

 

 

     If you are buying a house as an investment then you might want to reevaluate your choices in what you invest your money in. If you are buying your house so you can live in it and have a place to raise your family then you are making a great decision with your money.

     In the investment world a good long term investment is something that you can buy at a fair price and will eventually be worth much more than you bought it for when you sell it. In the investment world a bad long term investment is something you purchase that will eventually be worth around the same or less than as when you bought it. And you generally don't want to have to put any more money into your investment than what you already have when you first purchased it.

 

     The average sale price of a home in March of 2015 according the the U.S. Census Bureau was $343,300. And the average interest rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage in march 2015 was 3.77% according to Freddie Mac.  Based off of your purchasing price with a down payment of about 20% ($68,000 which is very unrealistic) your loan amount comes out to $275,300. If you paid off in full in 30 years the amount of money you would have paid into your mortage would be $460,108.80.

     The final price of $460,108.80 is what it would cost you to own a house in 30 years in a perfect world. However, there are many more expenses to owning a home such as property tax, home owners insurance, and home maintenance. If you based your tax rate off of my home towns of 2.76% (2014), the national average of $952 for home owners insurance, and the national average of home maintenance of 1% of value annually ($3433) it would cost you an extra $131,632.8. So now your house needs to be worth $591741.6 if you decide to sell it in 2045 to break even. You are paying $248,441.60 in order to own your house at the price of $343,300. Paying more than something is worth to own it is by definition a bad investment.

 

     What we have discussed so far goes against what a long term investment should be. As we stated it should be something that you can sell for considerably more than when you first bought it. A house purchased at $343,300 should be worth considerably more than that in 30 years for it to be a good long term investment. However appreciation of .2% annually would give your house a value of $364,506.64 netting a profit of $21,206.64. But that profit would be wiped out by all the interest due on your loan, the property taxes, home owner's insurance, and home maintenance.

     On the inverse let's look at what would happen if we took that $68,000 down payment and $1,643.72 monthly payment and invested it into a low cost index traded fund that mimmic'd the SP 500. From 1950-2009 the average annual return was 11% adjusted for inflation it was 7.2%, which is what we will use to find out what our new long term investment would yield over the same 30 year period. The principal amount that would be invested is $659,739.20 however the interest we would accumulate amounts to $1,893,866.82 for a combined value of $2,553,606.02. Even if you got taxed at a rate of 20% you would still come out ahead of your housing investment by a long shot with an after tax profit of $2,042,884.82.

     So what does this all mean to you? Well I am for one not telling you to never buy a house. It actually is a good idea to be a home owner but just not if the idea for owning a home is for investment purposes. There are a few things that aren't expressed in dollar signs when you buy and eventually own a home, specifically the pride of having your own piece of land and dwelling where you can have the freedom to do what you like within the confines of laws. It is also usually cheaper if you buy for the long term than rent for the long term, especially since you have an asset at the end of your 30 year mortgage  that can be sold or borrowed against.
     What I am telling you is to find "the perfect house" which is very cliche but it is quite true. An investment that isn't very good sure better make you happy in the long run otherwise you will be kicking yourself in 30 years. That perfect house also won't mean anything when you retire if you don't have any money to retire on, so make sure that you live within your means when purchasing a house otherwise you are going to have to sell that perfect house in the future because you need money to live off of. But with the right research in the area that you will be living you might be able to break even if you ever do decide to sell your house.

 



Listen But Don't Trust: Your Instincts

 

Listen But Don't Trust: Your Instincts

 

     Sometimes we make bad decisions and when we make those decision we are rarely thinking, rather we are using past experiences to determine a future outcome on the spot. Think back to when you were a child for the first time you saw people playing pokemon, you saw them laughing and smiling. You knew that from past experiences that kids laughing and smiling signified people having a good time. Automatically you wanted to spend the next 12 months of allowance from your parents on pokemon cards.

...Flashforward 20-30 years...



    

     "Dude, you have to get a pair of these shoes?!?" said one middle aged dad to another "I don't know man, they look pretty lame." said the other middle aged dad "Not the fanciest but they are like work slippers, I can do anything in them, every other guy I know has a pair." Said the other middle aged
dad that was wearing a pair of shoes called CROCS (NASDAQ: CROX).  The third middle aged dad was standing by eves dropping and heard the name "CROCS" and "everyone is getting them" his wife just so happened to tell him that we should start thinking about investing for retirement. He googled CROCS and found out he could purchase shares in their company in hopes to build a future for his family. With the popularity of CROCS the third dad thought he was making a great buy and snagged CROCS at $27.34 on April 27th of 2007 (a bit over a year after going public).
     Middle aged dad went with his instincts, he knew from past experiences that popular things usually do quite well (Pokemon). In a split second his instincts told him that Crocs would be a great investment. However what that middle aged man didn't know was that it wasn't, or there were just better options out there. What You See Is All There Is (WYSIATI), a term created by Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman to explain how the human mind makes decisions. We make decisions based off of only what we know from life all the way up to that point and rarely spend the time to gather further information, this is an Instinctual Decision (gut decision). While instinctual decisions have their place for circumstances like heavy traffic or wet floors (life or death situations), they have no place in investment decisions. Investment decisions have good or bad long term consequences, but to ensure that the majority of them become good consequences you must make an Informed Decision.
     Informed decisions are exactly what they sound like, they contain information, information that you do not yet know of but need to know in order to make the correct decision. To make these decisions you must go in search of the information that will help you come to a conclusion, and not necessarily the one that you want, more so the one that you need.

Sometimes fads aren't just fads

     While he made the right decision in putting money into the stock market he made the wrong decision in which stock he chose. He based his decision off of what he knew at the time, the shoes were comfortable and everyone was getting them, he also knew that popular things usually do well so he bought into the stock. But he didn't know alot of things about Crocs as a company and it's industry of fashion retail. He didn't know that it was a fad that was growing at amazing rates but would eventually fall very hard. With a little bit of digging he would have found that fashion retail is a very poor industry to invest in when compared to others, and that CROCS was a poor company to invest in when compaired to other fashion retail companies.
     The stock market is a good neighborhood to invest in, but CROCS is not a good house to entrust your future in, there are literally about 4000 other actively traded companies that you can choose from. While you should not ignore these instinctual decisions you rather should question them. Questioning them will bring about new factual evidence that will either refute or defend your first gut feeling. And if you end up being correct (and bought the stock) then you can rejoice in earnings and almost more importantly a correct decision. But whatever you do, do your own research before you decide, because what you see (or have seen) is sometimes not all there is.